The new olive oil campaign (2025/26) begins with mixed signals: global estimates are slightly down, Europe is stabilizing after the rebound of 2024/25, and Italy is potentially recovering, driven by the South but with significant regional differences. Here are the key numbers, risks, and comparisons with recent years.
World: USDA sees decline around 10%
The latest forecasts from the U.S. Department of Agriculture indicate global production of approximately 3.02 million tons in 2025/26, down 10% from 3.33 million tons in 2024/25. The reduction would primarily affect the EU and Turkey (expected at ~ 275,000 tons from 450,000 tons), while Tunisia would recover to ~ 200,000 tons after a strong 2024/25 season (~340,000 tons). The picture, however, is not unanimous: Mediterranean producers emphasize that the flowering was good and that the coming weeks will be crucial. Olive Oil Times ukragroconsult.com
European Union: prices falling and market normalizing
In 2024/25, the EU recovered production (around 2.1 million tonnes , +37% year-on-year) with a visible impact on prices: in June 2025, the European Commission reported sharp declines in olive oil prices, a sign of normalization after the peaks of 2023–early 2024. For 2025/26, the EU executive notes that the initial outlook was favorable, but heat waves in Spain and Portugal in early summer could limit their impact. The USDA, in turn, forecasts EU production at ~1.98 million tonnes in 2025/26, slightly down from 2024/25 (~2.08 million tonnes). Agriculture and rural development Olive Oil Times
In parallel, the International Olive Council notes a cooling of consumer prices in the EU and an increase in trade in 2025: in May 2025, extra-EU exports reached ~ 74,900 t , +36% year-on-year, with a declining average price. International Olive Council +1
Italy: Production may return above 300,000 tons
After closing 2024/25 at around 248,000–250,000 tons (Ismea data from Agea), Italy could rise above 300,000 tons in 2025/26, driven by the South. These are preliminary estimates based on agronomic data and the state of olive groves at the end of August, and are therefore subject to revision closer to the harvest. Olio Officina Magazine l'OlivoNews
Comparison with recent years:
-
2023/24: ~ 328 thousand t (Ismea)
-
2024/25: ~ 248 thousand t (-24% y/y; Ismea)
-
2025/26 (estimate): >300 thousand tonnes (OlivoNews/AIFO)
The fluctuations reflect the olive tree's cyclical nature, climatic stresses, and territorial differences. Olio Officina Magazine l'OlivoNews
Southern Italy: Puglia recovers, Calabria and Sicily remain high; Campania declines slightly.
Region-by-region forecasts indicate a significant recovery in the South . In particular:
-
Puglia: 150–160 thousand t (a clear recovery compared to last campaign, and with the possibility of an upward revision if it rains in September);
-
Calabria: >35 thousand t ;
-
Sicily: ~35 thousand t (from ~26 thousand in 2024/25);
-
Basilicata: return >4 thousand t ;
-
Campania: ~10 thousand t , with healthy olives and regular growth, fly present only in some areas .
If confirmed, these figures would bring the South back above 230 thousand tons , well beyond 2024/25 (when Puglia ~112 thousand, Calabria ~25.7 thousand, Sicily ~26.6 thousand, Basilicata ~1.4 thousand, Campania ~12.2 thousand). l'OlivoNews Olio Officina Magazine
Focus on Campania. In 2024/25, the region closed with ~12,190 t (ISMEA based on AGEA). For 2025/26, the estimate of around 10,000 t signals a potential year of local unloading after the decent performance in 2024/25, with a phytosanitary situation that is overall manageable but requires monitoring (fly). In the background, the Region has launched support measures for the supply chain (new calls for proposals for the 2023–2027 CSR) aimed at strengthening investments and resilience. Olio Officina Magazine Pupia.tv
Prices, inventories and trade: what changes for the market
-
Prices: In the EU, producer prices have been declining since 2024, with a further decline in 2025 thanks to increased production; the decline is also visible in the HICP index for olive oil. In Italy, ISMEA shows a correction in prices, albeit with differences between PDO/PGI. Agriculture and rural development Olio Officina Magazine
-
Trade: European exports rebounded in 2024/25 (+25% according to the EC), thanks to increased supply and lower prices; extra-EU flows monitored by the IOC are also increasing. Olive Oil Times International Olive Council
-
EU stocks are rebuilding after post-drought lows, contributing to price stabilization. Olio Officina Magazine
Risks to monitor (September–October)
Three variables can revise the estimates:
-
September rains (crucial for size and yield, especially in Puglia);
-
Late heat wave (water stress, fruit drop, quality risk);
-
Olive fruit fly (uneven presence, most intense in central and northern Italy in 2025). l'OlivoNews
In summary
-
World: USDA sees 3.02 million tons (-10% year-on-year). Olive Oil Times
-
EU: Prices down and normalization after the 2024/25 rebound; watch out for Iberian weather. Agriculture and rural development
-
Italy: >300,000 tons possible in 2025/26; South significantly improving . l'OlivoNews
-
Campania: forecast of ~10,000 tons (up from ~12.2,000 in 2024/25), with phytosanitary conditions to monitor. l'OlivoNews Olio Officina Magazine
Main sources: USDA/FAS; European Commission – Short-Term Outlook (July 2025); International Olive Council – Olive Sector Statistics; Ismea – Olive Oil Trends (July 2025); OlivoNews/AIFO – Region-by-Region Estimates (August 2025); sector analysis and reports. Olive Oil Times Agriculture and Rural Development International Olive Council Olio Officina Magazine l'OlivoNews